2014-10-09

Beijing Golden Week Sales Down 40%, In Line With 2014 Drop

Inventory at a 30-month high, but the media is at least dubbing this "stabilization."

From iFeng: 北京楼市国庆成交降四成 商品住宅库存再创新高

Editor's note: the National Day Golden Week is a lot of industry to expand sales of the best time, to some extent, this is seven days "record" is good or bad, can indicate the year "record." So, this year's Golden Week, and the people who live the most relevant industry, which has emerged as the characteristics of it?

Commercial housing stock hit a record high

Statistics show that three quarters of 2014, the Beijing property market turnover of new housing area of ​​the worst in history, but still average turnover reached record levels

October 8, Centaline Market Research Department released the latest statistics show that in January 2014 to September, Beijing new housing (excluding affordable housing) market turnover of 118.287 billion yuan, compared with the same period of 184.426 billion yuan in 2013 , fell as much as 36%.

However, from the National Day holiday turnover realized seven days, the Beijing property market more obvious signs of stabilization, particularly affected by the central bank relaxed credit limit, holiday showings increased significantly, began to focus on admission just need to buy a house. However, compared with the same period in 2013, Beijing property market "silver ten" start still relatively flat, turnover dropped four percent year on year.

In this regard, Deputy General Manager of Asia Hao Ren Qixin agency, told reporters after entering the fourth quarter, the primary goal of developers is through favorable policies, heavy promotion, to melt inventory, so prices will also remain stable.

The first three quarters year on year to sell 66.1 billion yuan less

According to Centaline Market Research Department statistics show that three quarters of 2014, Beijing new housing (excluding affordable housing) market turnover total 4.55 million square meters, the ring over the previous year's 7.97 million square meters, down the rate reached 43%, while lower than in 2008 and 2011 property market adjustment year.

However, from the point of view of the average transaction price and turnover, the first three quarters of 2014, the average transaction price reached a record high level still 25,972 yuan / square meter, the turnover was 118.287 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, less sold 66.1 billion yuan, up down the rate reached 36 percent, but still higher than in 2008 and 2011.

In fact, this means that three quarters of 2014, Beijing new housing market closing an area of ​​historical worst, but still the highest average transaction price.

However, sub-quarter view, three quarters of transaction data has to pick up signs, but this part of the rebound from the housing by supporting more obvious in the third quarter turnover of 43.802 billion yuan, higher than the first quarter, the second quarter of 39.174 billion yuan, 35.309 billion yuan .

It is worth noting that, despite the Beijing property market pick up signs, but is not yet fully warmed up good judgment. From the "silver ten" start point of view, Beijing new housing performance did not exceed expectations. Although the "eleven" is the developer of the timing and intensive push plate buyers intensive election room, but this year's "October" peak of the property market has not Ruqierzhi push plate.

According to Asian high statistics show that Beijing is only "during" holiday at the first of the Ivy League, and Lee Jin-Fu 2 in the end the project in Chaoyang District of opening the market, two projects total new supply of 160 units, with last year's "Eleventh "Compared to the holidays, the opening number of projects decreased 4, supply of copy number decreased by 75%.

A substantial reduction in the Beijing market supply, while commercial housing turnover, "eleven" period is relatively flat, according to Asian high statistics show, "11" during the Beijing commercial housing a total turnover of 538 sets of transactions with a total area of ​​4.54 million square meters, compared with last year's "October" holiday, down 40% and 35%, respectively.

In this regard, Ren Qixin analysis, since March this year, the property market turnover downturn, the majority of developers are making a lot of backlog of housing, real estate projects and more to go at this stage of the pre-inventory listings based, and willingness to push new not strong.

In addition, "11" on the eve of the central bank to relax that standard personal loans, as well as double positive adjustment policies Beijing recognized standards of ordinary residential market show effects brought about not so fast, from policies to specific landing this period of execution. " window period ", buyers will still hold out customer base. Beijing did not appear in a comprehensive, substantive premise substantial price cuts, relying solely on policy driven, market turnover is not rapid warming.

Property stocks hit 30-month high

"Securities Daily" correspondent was informed from a developer level, in order to speed up the sale of inventory, individual housing prices even stop off "October" holiday, only to tie line real estate sales, but the market is not yet scheduled to usher hot deal. Meanwhile, Beijing commercial housing stock is climbing, a record high.

According to Asian high statistics, October 7, Beijing commercial housing sales copy number has exceeded 90,000 units, up 91,265 units, to become self-March 2012 Beijing cleaned 33,000 sets of inventory invalid highest point since the beginning of the year significant increase compared to 36,000 units 55,000 units in stock.

In this regard, Ren Qixin analysts believe that this year, the Beijing property market continued tightening in credit policy, home-based commercial focus on the market, such as superposition of multiple factors under the influence of strong market sentiment, market turnover continued to slump, while housing prices in sales and Under the high cost of funds, such as pressure, increase the intensity of the push plate willingness to return cash to rise, increasing the volume of sluggish supply, prompting property stocks soared, to October reached a high point.

Ren Qixin said that with the gradual implementation of the credit policy of deregulation, the next "just be just modified" housing demand will accelerate the release, becoming the fourth quarter of Beijing property market turnover of recovery to pick up a help, but housing prices in high inventory and annual sales performance Under the influence of factors, future real estate projects will remain for some time in order to "run quantity" based.

Centaline Dawei, chief analyst also said that since September, the supply has increased significantly over the property. However, under the current build-off, the new disc sales rates, stock indexes still low pressures, developers can only reasonably priced deal to supply peak into the peak. Although the possibility of a price war in the Beijing property market getting smaller and smaller, but some areas still do not rule out the possibility of 10% -15% price adjustment item appears.

For the fourth quarter, the Beijing property market trend, Ren Qixin that the central bank "credit recognition does not recognize the room," the two suites finds ways to reduce the purchase to improve the type of buyers capital threshold, improved financial leverage buyers, magnified gains, It can promote the increased purchase of consumption. In addition, Beijing adjusted average house price standard, bring real good for buyers just need to further boost the confidence of buyers, expected in the fourth quarter, the Beijing property market in a series of favorable policies to stimulate the emergence of the recovery situation, the last quarter of the property market turnover also will be the annual peak.

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