China's Real Estate Cheerleader

In the U.S. there is the National Association of Realtors. In China, there is Ren Zhiqiang.

任志强：楼市二三十年内不会崩盘 不管高低赶紧买 (Home prices will not collapse in 20 or 30 Years; Ignore Price, Hurry Up And Buy)

"We did not feel cold, ah, normal, if you want, and in 2012 compared to this year is a huge increase." Huayuan Property [ Introduction News ] Co., Ltd., Ren yesterday to accept the " First Financial Daily "and other media When interviewed, said that this year the Beijing housing prices will continue to rise, currently second and third tier cities will see a sharp downturn and emerge deterioration.

Yesterday afternoon, Ren said, from an economic point of view, house prices and exchange rates have to use the points, just need buyers, house prices regardless of the use of high and low, you may have to hurry to buy, exchange rates and house depends on the scarcity of resources it occupies, for example education, transportation, location and so on.

"Everyone asked me not to the real estate crash, and I personally think that China's real estate market, at least two to three decades will not collapse." Ren said.

According to the Housing Research Association yesterday released a report in 2013, the national real estate development and investment 8.6013 trillion yuan, an increase of 19.8% over the previous year in nominal (after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 19.4%). The absolute amount of investment hit a record high, and almost double in 2009 and reach the 2010 investment. Year growth rate is also higher than in 2009 and 2012. Among them, the residential investment 5.8951 trillion yuan, up 19.4%, accounting for real estate development and investment accounted for 68.5 percent.

On the second and third tier cities in the property market price adjustments, Ren said that from January to February statistics point of view, the eastern, central and western regions, the growth rate of real estate sales in the central region the fastest, the fastest decline in the eastern region , which is the majority of medium-sized cities, the former is the second and third tier cities and urban majority, but still maintain the highest growth rate, and therefore do not see the second and third tier cities will be a sharp decline and deterioration.

"Report" that differentiate different cities and regions of our country at the same time increasing. First-tier cities and second-tier cities in the short and long-term hot demand pressures persist, most of these cities in 2013 to increase the supply of land so that new construction area of ​​growth will ease the shortage of supply pressure, but the contradictions within the short-term shortage of these cities is difficult to eradicate because of its urban potential, these cities will become a major regional leader in real estate development enterprise competition. And the short-term, four-tier cities, the market is also a great difference. Part of the four-tier cities showing an oversupply situation.

But the Housing Research Association also report that the risk can not be part of the four-tier cities conceal prospects tier cities, in December 2013 raised 12 to the 13th meeting of the Central urbanization: full liberalization of towns and small cities settled restraints, orderly release medium-sized city located in restricted cities settled reasonably determine condition, strict control of large-scale urban population. From a policy-oriented perspective, the future of the four-tier cities will be the main area to absorb the urbanization of the population. So in the long run, the main battlefield of the new four-tier cities as urbanization development, China's real estate market is still part of the market worth looking forward to.

Ren Zhiqiang, the overall situation on the real estate market the same judgment, but also with China's relevant urbanization strategy. He said: "Since the urbanization rate will not change, how likely do not look at the house from the developed countries, this curve is very obvious, and we Chinese urbanization rate to 70 percent still early, probably after 2025? 70% the speed of this development, there are at least ten years in the process. "

Data show that in 2013 new housing construction area 2,012,080,000 square meters, an increase of 13.5%, the growth rate increased 2 percentage points; among residential new construction area 1,458,450,000 square meters, an increase of 11.6%. To the good in the overall housing market, supported by new construction real estate market data also changed year on year growth trend of decline since 2011, the annual new construction area of the highest in nearly five years, a new high.

Housing Research Association in the report also warned that soaring housing prices in some cities, some three or four-tier cities housing stock digestion pressure; After years of rapid growth in the volume and price, part of the demand for early release in the past, the real estate market risk still exists.

"This year is declining macroeconomic trends may be more obvious." Ren said, the development of enterprises declined funds in place quickly, probably still worse than in 2008, while the implementation of the measures of urbanization and urban construction and other aspects of the group will be affected place Factors funds, since they "given property may still require huge complexes."

"Report" shows 500 net debt ratios of housing prices to the highest value of five points. Report, as a capital-intensive industry, real estate development companies since 2013 due to the good sales, many companies choose to increase leverage to accelerate the development of the growth rate, and therefore a general increase in the top 500 real estate development companies debt pressure, the average net debt ratio is more nearly The highest point in five years.

Short-term debt indicators, 2013, 500 real estate development companies current ratio was 208.57% mean decrease of 10.99 percentage points higher than in 2012; cash to current liabilities ratio mean of -5.67%, while the index for the 2012 annual average of 14.90%. Long-term solvency indicators, 2013 500 real estate development companies net debt ratio and asset-liability ratio was 79.03% and the average 66.04 percent, an increase of 17.06 percentage points and 0.69 percentage points respectively compared to 2012.