Will Obama Be Impeached? The Evidence Mounts

In Will Obama Be Impeached? Watch The Stock Market, I explained that the stock market is an important factor for Obama and impeachment. Presidents Reagan and Clinton faced major scandals in their second terms, but rising social mood, evidenced by a rising stock market, allowed both of them to serve out their terms and finish with high approval ratings. President Nixon was not so lucky, with his scandal breaking during a period of declining social mood and a large bear market in stocks. With Obama, I said there's enough evidence to fuel investigations, but the remaining piece of the puzzle is a bear market in stocks.

It is very early, but from the initial reports, there seems to be enough smoke to conclude one or more fires are present. If that's the case, the Obama administration will face serious political repercussions should social mood decline. Social mood is currently trending positive, but remains far more negative than at the 2000 peak in the stock market. Impeachment talk is silly at this point, but since I believe a 20% drop stocks is likely in the next 18 months, my outlook for the Obama administration is not bright. Watch the immigration bill, if it is defeated, it will be a sign that social mood is negative and working against Obama. If he can push it through, it doesn't mean he's past the scandals, only that he's still got enough positive momentum to continue pursuing his agenda.

This week, an influential Republican Senator spoke out about the evidence for impeachment proceedings.

President Obama "Getting Perilously Close" To Impeachment

COBURN: My little wiggle out of that when I get that written to me is I believe that needs to be evaluated and determined, but thank goodness it doesn’t have to happen in the Senate until they have brought charges in the House. Those are serious things, but we’re in a serious time. So whether -- I don’t have the legal background to know if that rises to high crimes and misdemeanors, but I think they’re getting perilously close.

It is important not to conflate social mood with evidence for impeachment. If Obama is wholly innocent in the growing list of scandals, then at worst he will become Hoover or Carter. If instead he is guilty, even of a small violation of the law, he will go the way of Nixon.