2011-12-16

Liu Junluo channels socionomics

Liu Junluo's latest book is The Imminent Third World Depression. In his blog post announcing this book, he explains why China is about to lose hundreds of billions of dollars, a forecast that lines up perfectly with the predictions of socionomics. Below is my paraphrased translation of the relevant portion of 2012年中国宏观政策将继续希望股市大规模下跌和新书公告
In 2012, we will see Europe hovering between life and death, weeping about how poor she is, then happy and excited as the collapsing euro wipes out her debt; then in 2012-2013 we will see African nationalists rise to power and nationalize foreign investments. Venezuela has nationalized U.S. assets and gotten along extremely well. We are investing every sum of money into Africa, and the Africans welcome it, but wait until the nationalists come to power, then Africa's good times will begin.
He compares this to what the Europeans have done, inviting hundreds of billions in China investment only to plan on default. The result of the massive losses will be depression in China, which will spread across the emerging markets.

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