2011-12-13

Is Facebook dying?

Facebook is dying
However, looking at the pattern of the traffic received over the course of the year, I began to notice that the amount of traffic received from Facebook was declining. Consider the following numbers as percentages of the Facebook-derived January traffic.
Jan 11 100.0
Apr 11 69.3
Jul 11 45.7
Oct 11 63.5
Dec 11 26.5 (est.)
This is predicted by socionomics, so while it is a single data point, it is a good one in terms of recognizing the trend. Since Facebook may IPO in 2012 (assuming the market hasn't cratered by then) and Facebook dependent companies such as game maker Zynga are set to go public, analysts are crunching the numbers.
Analyst: Zynga growth slowing, Facebook dependency a weakness
Bhatia said Zynga’s blockbuster game Farmville has peaked, and subsequent games are coming online at a “much slower” pace. Bhatia says that “Cityville, currently Zynga’s best title in terms of traffic, is tracking, by our estimates, 50 percent below Farmville at the same point in its history.”

Also, from June: Facebook growth slows for second month in a row

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