2010-03-03

Revaluing the Chinese yuan

Another call for RMB appreciation, this time in April: Yuan Appreciation Is Necessary, and Best in April

Chinese yuan has not been moving much against the U.S. dollar, obviously, but the U.S. dollar has been moving against the euro.
China's export growth is coming from emerging economies though, according to government data, and more than half of exports now go to developing economies. The WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency (CEW) is down as well, however, in 2010.
I do not see the Chinese appreciating their currency on the back of U.S. dollar appreciation because this would be a bold, rather than cautious move. The gradual approach is to counteract the prevailing trend, not exacerbate it. Unless they truly fear inflation, which at this point seems in check, it doesn't make sense. Also, something tells me the Chinese know that revaluation will shake the currency markets and with the euro situation, they probably don't want to be blamed for causing excess volatility.

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