2009-09-21

Socionomics Watch—Steel

This isn't a look at social mood, but a "history rhymes" comparison.
From News from 1930, September 15:
The great debate: Bears argue that past month's rally has already discounted the mild improvement in business, and that decline in steel production in past week indicates weakness. Bulls counter that steel decline was due to Labor Day, that August steel and car loading figures show more than seasonal improvement, and that recent retail figures and company outlooks have been improved. On the technical side, bulls believe the recent rally has “definitely broken” the downtrend since last Sept., indicating future support should come in well above the June bottom of 212.
Here's news from September 21, 2009: Steel traders Call for Lower Prices from Producers
Steel prices have fallen since August and many traders have lost money on products purchased under contract at higher than current market prices.

The contract price of cold-rolled steel for October delivery from Baosteel, for example, is 6,300 yuan per ton, compared with a market price of about 5,600 yuan per ton, Liu Changqing, chairman of Beijing Lange Baiziwan Steel Market, said.

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