2017-03-29

Horror Ready For a Comeback?

Horror movies tend to earn peak profits amid periods of negative mood. Does the recent media blitz for IT reflect a shift in mood?

EW: Beware: Here's the terrifying new trailer for Stephen King's It

More Evidence of Immigration Driving Wages Lower

From down undah.

MacroBusiness: The evidence is clear: immigration reduces wages
On the specific issue of whether immigration lowers incumbent workers’ wages, the PC’s view is clear. In 2006, the PC completed a major study on the Economic Impacts of Migration and Population Growth, which modelled the impact of a 50% increase in the level of skilled migration over the 20 years to 2024-25 and found that the benefits from increasing skilled migration accrue to the migrants themselves and wealthy capital owners, whereas existing resident workers are made worse-off.
One way you will see the goal posts shifted in the immigration debate is the pro-immigration side will say immigration is good for the economy. What economy? They are talking about national GDP, not GDP per capita. If a nation created a "foreign zone" and banned any natives from entering, and any foreigners from leaving, national GDP would rise because economic activity in the foreign zone counts towards GDP. They'll also count small shops as adding to GDP. For instance, if lots of Koreans move in and open a Korean-lanuguage laundromat to service the Korean community, it improves GDP growth, but doesn't increased demand for native labor. This is with a good immigrant community that can provide for itself. Most immigrants coming in the West require subsidies and generational studies indicate the subsidies will never end.
The bottom line is that running a high immigration program requires massive investment and costs a lot, and these costs are borne to a large extent by the incumbent population.

Therefore, if you want wages to be reduced, traffic congestion to get worse, to pay more for utilities and housing, and to see the environment get degraded, then continue with current mass immigration settings. But if you care about maintaining Australian living standards, then immigration needs to be slashed to sensible and sustainable levels.
An interesting question is did economists, sociologists, et al forget the law of supply and demand, and impact on native wages, home prices, school overcrowding, crime rates and on and on? Or were they cowed into silence by political correctness? If the latter, what changed? Social mood. People who were quiet before are ready to fight because social mood is changing. The public is becoming more receptive to these arguments.

Good News for Marine Le Pen: Paris Bans Porno Ads

Yves Saint Laurent just called the top in hemlines.

Daily Mail: Paris bans 'sexist' adverts from billboards following outcry over 'porno chic' fashion campaign
Adverts considered 'sexist' have today been banned from billboards across Paris after feminists raised an outcry over so-called 'porno chic'.

The Paris city council voted for the ban today and the city's Mayor Anne Hidalgo said Paris was 'leading the way' in the fight against sexism.

Among those ads which are expected to be banned are those from Yves Saint Laurent's latest campaign, which have been accused of 'degrading' models and even 'inciting rape'.

Hélène Bidard, a French Communist Party councillor and Deputy Mayor, tweeted today: 'Victory in the Paris Council. @JCDecaux_France agrees not to disseminate sexist, discriminatory, LGBT phobic ads in Paris.'
Remove the political overtones and it is a clear sign of negative social mood.

One month ago: Saint Laurent channels ‘80s glam for Paris Fashion Week
Over 100 looks walked the runway: The first half was mostly comprised of body-hugging ruched leather dresses and miniskirts with exaggerated ruffles and up-to-there hemlines. Sexy — and so ’80s.

Vaccarello dialed up the high-wattage glamour even more for the second half — sending a mix of womenswear and menswear in almost entirely black looks covered in sparkles from every, and any, angle. Sparkles were up the shoulder, framing a plunging neckline, smattered all over a loose, long-sleeve T-shirt dress. Even a slouchy knee-high boot received the bedazzled treatment. Translation? Dressing like a disco ball is the look for fall.

Key line:
'We had a similar type of porno chic (in fashion advertising) a decade ago, and here we have it coming back again which isn't acceptable,' Martin added.
When exactly? 2006.

Boston Globe: The pornification of America
What is new and troubling, critics suggest, is that the porn aesthetic has become so pervasive that it now serves as a kind of sensory wallpaper, something that many people don't even notice anymore. The free-speech-versus-censorship debates that invariably surround actual pornography do not burn as hot when the underlying principles of porn are filtered more subtly into the mainstream. And those principles, critics say, often involve reducing women to subjugated sex objects while presenting men in dominant roles.

Braving the inevitable accusations of prudery -- which they reject -- critics such as Paul are sounding the alarm. They say the current hypersexualized climate distorts the attitudes of young people toward sex and relationships. In particular, they contend it has a damaging effect on the self-image of young women and girls, who are confronted with a culture that objectifies them while disguising it as female empowerment.

Beijing City Master Plan: More Rail, Population Limits, Development Restrictions

According to the draft plan, the future of Beijing urban development will be strictly in the population limit, ecological control lines, urban development boundary "three red line" within.

Beijing Municipal Planning and Land Resources Management Committee Director Wei Chenglin introduction, in accordance with the "water to the city, with water set people" requirements, clear Beijing resident population scale by 2020 control at 23 million people, after 2020 long-term stable control at 23 million.

Ecological control line in the overall integration of landscape forest resources on the basis of conditions. Wei Chenglin, Beijing will be about 16410 square kilometers of urban space is divided into ecological control area, limit the construction area, prohibit the construction area, the ecological control area in 2020 about 73% of the city area, 2030 to 75%.

In addition, the overall draft plan clearly, Beijing urban and rural construction land will be based on the current 2921 square kilometers, by 2020 cut to 2860 square kilometers and by 2030 cut to 2760 square kilometers. "Clear urban development boundaries, to determine the urban space rigid control of the border and binding targets, strict control of urban and rural construction land size, to achieve intensive and efficient development." Beijing Vice Mayor Sui Zhenjiang said.

By 2020, the rail transit mileage of about 1000 km; to 2030, the green travel ratio of more than 80%, in the city center public transport travel ratio of 42%.
All of this is doable without a lot of changes. This last one requires a big change in environmental regulation:
Air treatment, the overall draft plan clearly, Beijing 2020 PM 2.5 annual average underwear in 56 micrograms / cubic meter, by 2030 reduce to around 35 micrograms / cubic meters, meeting national standards.
北京城市总体规划草案发布:15年后首都是什么样?

Britain Triggers Article 50


Telegraph: What is Article 50? The only explanation you need to read

The Expanding Tally of Buying Restrictions

Beijing is highlighted in red, it has implemented the most forms of restrictions. Most cities have used 限购, which is tightening qualifications such as residency. 限贷 refers to limits on credit, such as increased interest rates, increased down payments. Others have limited access to public housing funds 限公积金 or tightened criteria 公积金, tightened social insurance requirements 限社保, demanded tighter checks on individuals and banks 认购认贷, and sometimes limited sales 限售. Beijing added the provisions against fake divorces, selling commercial property to individuals and tightened taxes paid requirements.

The latest cities to implement buying restrictions are cities that haven't seen price run-ups:
March 29 at noon, Gansu Tianshui, Guiyang and Changchun three cities joined the city of control, but, compared to hot spots and hot spots around the city, the three cities of the control efforts smaller.
iFeng: 楼市调控新风向!这三个房价涨幅较小城市也出政策了

2017-03-28

Buying Restrictions Pile Up

Hangzhou and Xiamen further tightened property rules on March 28.

iFeng: 重磅!杭州、厦门升级楼市调控措施:认房又认贷
Caixin: Three Cities Join Growing Push to Combat Frenzied Homebuying

An official with Beijing's Municipal Housing Construction Committee said the city is weathervane for the nation's real estate market. Not only referring to the rise and fall in prices, but in the rollout of new regulatory measures such as tackling fake divorces, and earlier this week, restricting commercial property sales. Yet another wave of property restrictions could be coming in the next few months...

iFeng: 向北京看齐!楼市调控政策北京已成全国风向标

After the Crackdown: Beijing Commercial Housing Market Grinds to a Halt

Beijing has been cracking down on the real estate sector, using any relevant law and any government power to restrict the industry. See Beijing Metes Out More Punishment for Real Estate Violations and Five Branches of Beijing Muni Govt Ramp Up Real Estate Controls.

Following the latest crackdown on commercial property, realtors have pulled advertising and banks have halted lending. These are ostensibly commercial or dual use properties, but sold to individual buyers.
Commercial housing" may face resale difficulties , buyers are afraid of "getting their hands smashed"

In Yan Yuejin view, this move on the Beijing business class project to implement a strict purchase practices. "Second - hand housing business to allow the sale of property to individuals, in fact, to prevent second - hand housing land east of all kinds of controversy set", set the two conditions for the subscription, so that this property back to the residential properties.

"As a result of the conditions on purchases of existing commercial projects, the basic and ordinary residential, such properties existing home transactions is bound to face the risk of backing out." Yan Yue Jin that the future business class project prices or decline.

It is based on this concern, many of the completion of business projects signed by the project buyers eager to "go back". A few days ago to pay the first payment, set in Beijing Daxing District, a set of "commercial housing," Ms. Cui, these two days but busy consulting and check out the process, "the future business projects do nothing market, and now do not refund Room, afraid to hit in their own hands.

New projects can not be sold to individuals, how will it impact the commercial market?

According to Centaline real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei statistics, 90% of the Beijing commercial properties are sold to individuals, and now the policy adjustment, "rules of the game" completely changed.

Zhang Dawei said that this policy will directly affect at least 600,000 units of commercial properties, is expected turnover will fall, prices will be lower. "Beijing is the first to regulate the commercial market, afterwards other cities are likely to open a wave of comprehensive closure of business projects, since residential purchase restriction led to investment in commercial property, could face a huge risk.
iFeng: 北京商住房限购追踪:中介紧急下架房源 银行停贷

Reuters: China stops individuals from buying Beijing commercial property
New commercial plots can now only be sold to enterprises, public entities and social organizations, said a statement issued by Beijing's banking, industry and commerce, housing and urban planning authorities.

The statement posted on the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development website on Sunday said that personal loans for buying commercial property have also been suspended.

...Only second-hand commercial property can be sold to individuals, who have to prove income tax payments for five consecutive years and hold no property, the regulators said in their statement.

The smallest unit available should be a minimum of 500 square meters and real estate agencies that falsely advertise commercial plots as housing will be punished.